Within the context of the supply chain, the term “freight” refers to the bulk products transported using a truck, train, ship, or aeroplane.

The term “freight rates” refers to the amount of money that shippers pay to carriers to transport their goods in Truckload (TL) markets. 

Freight rates depend on economic demand, fleet capacity, fuel costs, weight, size, distance, and the type of goods being shipped. Transporters and shippers negotiate rates either on-site or through a contract. Shippers use Research, DAT, and other freight data and analysis to strategically compete on contract market requests for proposals (RFPs) year-round.

For the freight industry to better adapt to the ever-changing truckload market and prepare accordingly, it needs a solid understanding of the current freight rates.

Which Factors Have An Impact On The Freight Rates?

Besides the truckload cycle, several other factors affect freight rates. However, what matters most? Supply and demand, the expert says.

The balance of supply and demand determines the current state of freight prices in the TL market. There’s an increase in prices and demand when the supply of drivers or tractors is limited. Prices decline as supply expansion surpasses demand expansion. There is a cycle to this. 

However, to break it down even further, consider the impact that economic demand and fleet capacity have on freight rates.

The Economic Demand

Full truckload freight transports nearly all physical goods produced or traded in the economy. The retail and industrial sectors are the two biggest economic markets for the TL industry. The adage “if you bought it, a truck brought it” is one that we like. 

To generalize, when the economy is strong, people spend more, creating more goods to carry. Conversely, when the economy is down, individuals spend less, diminishing the supply of goods. 

From a long-term perspective, the amount of freight that is generated per person tends to be relatively consistent. It is abundantly evident that slower population growth has, over the longer term, implications for the generation of goods and economic activity in general. 

Freight increases most early in the economic cycle when industries are growing and inventory levels are rising, then slows. Fewer than two years pass before goods recessions, which occur more often than economic recessions. The goods cycle progresses up to two years and down to a few months to two years.

June 2025 Updated Cass Freight Index® 

In June, the seasonally adjusted Cass Freight Index® shipments component fell for the seventh straight month. Seasonal mid-year weakening is predicted, but declines indicate fundamental problems in the freight environment. Private fleet expansion and conservative inventory management are accelerating the sector’s comeback from traditional for-hire carriers. 

Latest data shows that late 2024 freight momentum—driven by pre-tariff cargo and holiday restocking—has faded. Discretionary retail, home furnishings, and industrial inputs have more volume weakness. For-hire carriers face volume compression as shippers remain conservative and cost-driven due to macroeconomic and trade uncertainty.

Private fleets operate at high utilisation and control route, frequency, and service levels. For-hire operators fear a delayed, more fragmented recovery as their fleets take more freight. Infrastructure, food, and healthcare logistics offer the most volume stability for freight growth.  However, truckload demand remains low through mid-2025. 

The Fleet Capacity

During the process of capacity development, consumer purchasing habits vary, and inventory is replenished. As a result, the demand for goods falls. There are many different ways to think about truck capacity. 

In most cases, Class 8 tractors that are older than eleven years are not permitted to transport goods in the less-than-truckload (LTL) or truckload (TL) space; however, this is not always the case among fleets within the same fleet.

Older trucks are put back on the road when conditions are tight enough because OEMs and parts suppliers are unable to react quickly enough to demand increases. Additionally, reduced freight rates drive out older and less effective trucks as capacity becomes available. 

What Are The Price Differences For Each Kind Of Freight Trucking?

Freight rates are falling across the board in a freight slump, as we’re in. Compared to dry van, flatbed, and reefer trailer rates broaden at the cycle bottom. In the early cycle, dry van rates catch up, narrowing the spread. The spread is broad mid-cycle and narrows late-cycle. 

However, in a general sense, is there a difference between the many types of goods trucking?

1. Dry Van Trucking

In a fully enclosed trailer, a dry van truck delivers dry goods.  Retail items predominate in dry vans, the biggest and most standardized kind of truckload shipping. 

2. Refrigerated Trucking

Food, film, and pharmaceuticals are transported in refrigerated van trailers. Reefer rates are more stable than others.

3. Flatbed Trucking

Flatbed trucks transport goods in platform trailers with flat loading decks and no sides or roof. Flatbeds carry machines and construction materials. The seasonal flatbed market should cause further rate fluctuations.

What Are The Differences In Freight Rates Between Spot And Contract Trucking?

A fixed price agreed upon by both the shipper and the carrier, established for a specific time, is referred to as a contract fee for freight. Shippers who do not have carrier contracts are eligible to pay spot rates, which are charges determined on the spot. There are pros and cons to both spot rates and contract rates, depending on how you look at it.

It is easy to believe that spot prices are more variable than contract rates, and although this is possibly the case, there are pros and cons to both. Taking part in both the contract market and the spot market allows businesses to diversify their short-term and long-term strategies, as well as to take advantage of unanticipated changes in cargo patterns.

What Are The Current Rates For Freight?

The spot prices for dry vans are $1.53 per mile, the spot rates for DAT reefers are $1.83 per mile, and the spot rates for flatbeds are $1.98 per mile as of April 2024. Check out the Company Freight Trucking Rates data tracker, which is continually updated monthly, for a more in-depth breakdown and analysis of the current freight rates. There is a cyclical pattern to the rise and fall of freight rates, and while freight rates can make or break balance sheets, it is essential to remember that whatever goes up must come down.

We are currently in one of four general periods of the classic truckload cycle, and the freight rates we pay are determined by the cycle we are in.

• Early Phase: Interest rates increase
• Mid-Phase: Rates at a plateau
• Late Phase: Interest rates decrease
• Bottom Phase: Interest rates continue to fall, but at a slower pace

If you have more questions, feel free to leave them in the comments!